Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperature during November 2026 During November, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some regions along the foothills of Himalayas where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are expected. During November, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except in many parts of central and eastern India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Currently, very strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission couple Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate model forecasts indicate that very strong El Nino conditions are likely during November- December 2026. In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), also influence the Indian climate. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has currently exceeded the positive IOD threshold (+0.4 °C). However, sustained values above this threshold are required before an event is considered established. The latest Monsoon Mission couple Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate model forecasts indicate that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the post Monsoon Season. (Till December, 2026) Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall during November 2026 Monthly rainfall for November 2026 over the South Peninsular India, consisting of five meteorological subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe and South Interior Karnataka) is most likely to be below normal (<77% of Long Period Average (LPA)). The LPA of rainfall over South Peninsular India during November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 118.7 mm. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during November 2026 is also most likely to be below normal (<77% of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during the month of November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 29.7 mm. Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except for some areas in central, northwest, east and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely during November 2026. Source : IMD