Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperature during September 2026 In September 2026, the monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal over most parts of the country except some parts of Northwest, Westcentral and Northeast India where it is likely to be normal to below normal . Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Currently, strong El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through September 2026. However, forecasts from international climate centres suggest that the neutral IOD conditions may transition to positive IOD conditions from September onwards. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall during September 2026 Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during September 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<91% of Long Period Average (LPA)). Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, some areas of Northwest, Northeast, East, Eastcentral and Southeast Peninsular India, are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during September, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 167.9 mm. Below-normal rainfall can adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability, besides increasing the risk of heat stress in several regions. Timely preparedness measures — including water conservation, efficient resource management, and agricultural contingency planning — by concerned agencies and stakeholders can help mitigate these impacts. IMD provides a range of weather and climate services, including seasonal and extended-range forecasts, district-level forecasts, agro-meteorological advisories, and impact-based early warnings, to support informed decision-making by farmers, water resource managers, disaster management authorities, and power sector planners. Effective utilization of IMD’s forecasts and early warning services can significantly enhance resilience to rainfall deficit conditions. Source : IMD